Table 4

Changepoint model fit.

Parameter Estimate 95% CrI PlR^ Effective sample size
Temperature threshold (changepoint) 15.45 [15.09, 15.80] 1 1986
β0(Interceptbeforechangepoint) 0.19 [0.03, 0.34] 1 8106
β1(Interceptafterchangepoint) 1.09 [0.41, 1.73] 1 831
β2(Temperaturecoefficient) 0.64 [0.21, 1.10] 1 1047
σ1(variancebeforechangepoint) 0.44 [0.32, 0.56] 1 3963
σ2(varianceafterchangepoint) 2.53 [2.34, 2.71] 1 9408

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