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Table 4

Comparison of predicted and observed distributions of Myriophyllum spicatum and Hydrilla verticillata at the model confirmation stage. Predicted values were obtained from the fitted probability of presence using the Youden index to apply a threshold probability: 0.536 for M. spicatum and 0.492 for H. verticillata.

Species Contents Predicted absence Predicted presence Total
M. spicatum Observed absence 23 6 29
Observed presence 4 8 12
Total 27 14 41
    Correct prediction (23 + 8)/41 = 0.76
    Error of commission 6/29 = 0.21
    Error of omission 4/12 = 0.33
    AUC 0.75
    Kappa 0.44
H. verticillata Observed absence 28 30
Observed presence 8 3 11
Total 36 5 41
    Correct prediction (28 + 3)/41 = 0.76
    Error of commission 2/30 = 0.07
    Error of omission 8/11 = 0.73
    AUC 0.82
    Kappa 0.25

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