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Table 3

Comparison of predicted and observed distributions of Myriophyllum spicatum and Hydrilla verticillata during model building. Predicted values were obtained from the fitted probability of presence using the Youden index to apply a threshold probability: 0.536 for M. spicatum and 0.492 for H. verticillata.

Species Contents Predicted absence Predicted presence Total
M. spicatum Observed absence 91 23 114
Observed presence 29 54 83
Total 120 77 197
    Correct prediction (91 + 54)/197 = 0.74
    Error of commission 23/114 = 0.20
    Error of omission 29/83 = 0.35
    AUC 0.84
    Kappa 0.46
H. verticillata Observed absence 115 13 128
Observed presence 37 32 69
Total 152 45 197
    Correct prediction (115 + 32)/197 = 0.75
    Error of commission 13/128 = 0.10
    Error of omission 37/69 = 0.54
    AUC 0.79
    Kappa 0.39

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